2024.10.08

Shipowners invest $155 billion in 2024, making it fourth-highest year for newbuildings

Shipowners have invested $155 billion in new vessels in 2024, making it the fourth-highest year on record for newbuilding investments, according to Clarksons Research. This figure, more than double the 10-year average, reflects strong demand for container ships, tankers, and gas carriers. By the end of September, 93.6 million gross tons (gt) had been contracted, surpassing the totals for 2022 and 2023, and the full-year figure is expected to exceed 100 million gt. Rising costs, driven by an increased uptake of green technologies and more expensive ship types like LNG-capable vessels, have pushed the average ship price to $90 million, a 30% increase from 2022. Additionally, around 44% of ships ordered in 2024, excluding LNG carriers, are alternative fuel-capable. Clarksons’ newbuilding price index has risen to 45% above 2021 levels, nearing its 2008 peak. The combination of strong demand, higher-value vessels, and cost inflation is driving record investments in the shipping industry.

[SLOW] Tanker Fleet Study _ number of new tanker orders by ship type

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[SLOW] Weekly Dirty Tanker Research _ VLCC secondhand price by ship ages

Bahri sells oldest VLCC amid active fleet expansion

Saudi Arabian shipping company Bahri has sold its oldest VLCC, the 303,000-dwt Safwa (built in 2002), for $31.7 million, slightly above valuation estimates. This marks Bahri's second VLCC sale this year, following the sale of Marjan (also built in 2002) in May. At the same time, Bahri has acquired the 62,000-dwt ultramax bulker Amis Miracle (built in 2018) for $34.4 million, expanding its bulker fleet to 13 vessels. These transactions come after Bahri's significant $1 billion purchase of nine modern VLCCs from Evangelos Marinakis in August, highlighting the company's active expansion strategy. The VLCC market has seen stable values, while demand for ultramax bulkers remains high, despite investor concerns over asset values and charter rates. Rising tensions in the Middle East are influencing tanker spot rates and asset prices, adding to market uncertainty.

[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/  Folder Filters _ Bahri

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[SLOW] Oil Market _ refinery margin

Asian refiners struggle with rising Saudi oil prices amid Iran supply risks

Asian oil refiners are grappling with declining profit margins as Saudi Arabia raises its official selling price (OSP) for Arab Light oil by 90 cents for November, exceeding the expected 65-cent increase. This price hike makes Saudi oil more expensive than competing Middle Eastern sour varieties, even as threats to Iranian oil exports heighten demand for Saudi barrels, particularly in China. The rising tensions between Israel and Iran's proxies have intensified concerns among refiners, especially China's private "teapot" refiners, who rely on discounted Iranian imports to remain competitive. Additionally, increasing ship-charter rates and stronger global benchmarks are compounding feedstock costs, further squeezing profits. In Singapore, margins for complex refineries have fallen to near parity, while daily rates for VLCC surged over 30% amid fears of potential Israeli strikes on Iranian ships. As geopolitical risks rise, global Brent crude prices have jumped nearly 10% this month, reflecting market uncertainties.

[SLOW] Daily VLCC Market _ TCE comparison by routes

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[SLOW] www.slowspace.io _ Libyan oil pipeline

Libyan oil production surpasses 1 million barrels a day

Libya's oil production has surpassed 1 million barrels per day for the first time in two months, reaching 1.067 million barrels on Sunday. This increase follows the resolution of a political standoff that had previously curtailed output and exports. The blockade imposed by the eastern government was lifted on October 3, allowing production to rise, particularly at the Sharara oil field, which is ramping up toward full capacity.

Historically, Libya produces over 1.2 million barrels daily, but production dropped below 450,000 in August after a political upheaval led to an oil shutdown. Currently, the Sharara field is contributing 240,000 barrels per day, while the Waha Oil Company is producing 150,000 barrels as it awaits pipeline repairs. Other production levels include 220,000 barrels from Arabian Gulf Oil Co. (Agoco), 110,000 barrels from Amna, 95,000 barrels from Brega, and 60,000 barrels from Abu Attifel. Fields operated by Mellitah Oil Co. are contributing 100,000 barrels daily, with El Feel returning to its pre-shutdown production of 60,000 barrels.

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[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/ Dangote Petroleum Refinery Cargo Flow

Dangote refinery's Nigerian crude intake set to transform Atlantic oil markets

The Dangote oil refinery, Africa's largest plant located outside Lagos, is poised to take in up to 400,000 barrels per day of Nigerian crude over the next two months, potentially reshaping the region's import and export dynamics. Scheduled to receive around 24 million barrels in October and November, the refinery's operations will significantly reduce Nigeria's crude exports, which could drop below 1 million barrels per day. The refinery's ramp-up, which is expected to reach full capacity in the coming months, will tighten the West African crude market, with analysts predicting a "substantially tighter" supply landscape in the fourth quarter. Additionally, Dangote has been reducing its imports of US crude, and a recent agreement with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company ensures that the state-owned firm will exclusively distribute the refinery's gasoline production. This shift could enable Nigeria to significantly reduce its reliance on costly oil product imports if the refinery operates at higher rates, leading to a rapid decline in West Africa's gasoline and diesel imports.

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[SLOW] EIA - Crude Oil Outlook _ Norway Oil Production

Norway's oil production to rise 5.2% in 2025, gas output expected to drop 1.6%

Norway's oil production is projected to increase by 5.2% in 2025 compared to 2024, according to the government's draft budget. Oil output, including condensate and natural gas liquids, is expected to reach 122 million cubic meters of oil equivalent (2.1 million barrels per day) in 2025, up from 116 million cubic meters in 2024. However, natural gas production is expected to decline by 1.6%, from 123 billion cubic meters in 2024 to 121 billion cubic meters in 2025. Norway remains Europe's leading gas supplier and a major oil producer, pumping over four million barrels of oil equivalent per day.

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[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/ _ Tuapse oil refinery

Russia's Tuapse oil refinery halts operations due to low profit margins

Rosneft's Tuapse oil refinery, located on the Black Sea, has suspended its operations as of October 1, 2023, due to low margins on refined fuel exports, according to industry sources. Despite being technically operational, the refinery will remain idle throughout October due to reduced profitability in exporting refined products compared to crude oil. As a result, Russian oil product exports from Tuapse are expected to drop by 69% in October to 0.312 million metric tons. The refinery, with a processing capacity of 240,000 barrels per day, mainly supplies naphtha, fuel oil, and high-sulfur diesel to markets in Turkey, China, Malaysia, and Singapore. The plant, which has faced operational disruptions due to Ukrainian drone attacks in 2024, processed 9.322 million metric tons of crude oil this year.

[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/ Trade Flow Tuapse seaborne exports by cargo group

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Petrobras hits record gasoline production of 436,000 barrels per day in Q3

Brazil's state-owned oil company Petrobras reported record gasoline production of 436,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the third quarter of 2024, a 2.8% increase compared to the same period last year. The company produced 6.38 billion liters of gasoline, with a refinery utilization rate of 95.2% for the quarter, just shy of the 96% from 2023, which was a near-decade high. In September, refinery utilization peaked at 96.8%, the highest monthly rate in 2024. These numbers provide an early insight into Petrobras’ strong quarterly performance, with full financial reports expected in the coming weeks.