2026.05.13

Oil Extends Rally as Iran Ceasefire Hopes Fade

Oil prices rose for a third straight session as growing doubts over a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran heightened fears of prolonged supply disruptions, with Brent settling up 3.42% at $107.77/bbl and WTI rising 4.19% to $102.18/bbl. Donald Trump said ceasefire talks were on “life support,” while Iran reiterated control over the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. EIA now expects the strait to remain effectively closed through late May, estimating Middle East supply losses at 10.5 million bpd in April, while some analysts estimate disruptions as high as 14 million bpd. The EIA also forecasts global oil inventories will decline by 2.6 million bpd this year, as tightening supply and falling stockpiles continue to support bullish oil market sentiment.

Vietnam Appeals to US Navy as Iraqi Oil Tanker Caught in Hormuz Blockade

PetroVietnam Oil Corp. urged the U.S. Navy to allow the tanker Agios Fanourios I, carrying nearly 2 million barrels of Iraqi Basrah Medium crude, to pass through the blockade near the Strait of Hormuz and continue to Vietnam’s Nghi Son refinery. The vessel performed a U-turn in the Gulf of Oman after exiting Hormuz, raising concerns it may have been intercepted as part of the expanded U.S. blockade targeting shipments linked to Iran. PetroVietnam warned that inventories at the 200,000 bpd Nghi Son refinery are critically low and that further delays could disrupt fuel supplies for millions of Vietnamese consumers and industries.

Iran’s Kharg Island Oil Exports Stall as Storage Nears Capacity

Oil shipments from Iran’s main export terminal at Kharg Island appear to have halted for several consecutive days, marking the longest interruption since the war began, according to satellite imagery analyzed by Bloomberg. No ocean-going tankers were observed at the terminal on May 8, 9, or 11, while the number of tankers being used as floating storage near the island surged from 3 on April 11 to at least 18 by May 11 following the U.S. naval blockade. Satellite analysis also suggests storage tanks on Kharg Island are nearing full capacity, raising the risk that Iran may be forced to implement deeper production cuts if exports remain blocked. The disruption comes amid reports of a possible 3,000-barrel leak at the facility, although Iran denied any spill, while analysts estimate the country could run out of storage space by late May.

Aramco Plans Yanbu Export Expansion

Saudi Aramco plans to expand tanker loading capacity at its Yanbu Red Sea terminals beyond the current 5 million bpd as the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues to disrupt Gulf exports. CEO Amin Nasser said the global market is losing about 100 million barrels of oil per week, with nearly 1 billion barrels of supply already affected since the conflict began on Feb. 28. Aramco warned that even if Hormuz reopened immediately, it could take months for oil markets to rebalance, while prolonged disruptions may limit 2026 global demand growth to 700,000–900,000 bpd. The company is redirecting crude through its East-West Pipeline to Yanbu, despite recent Iranian attacks that temporarily reduced the facility’s production capacity by 600,000 bpd and pipeline throughput by 700,000 bpd.

US EIA Launches New Energy Security Data Tracking Hormuz Flows and Global Reserves

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will begin publishing quarterly energy security reports starting Wednesday, featuring new datasets on global strategic reserves and petroleum and LNG flows through major shipping choke points. The initiative comes as the Iran war continues to disrupt global energy markets, with the Strait of Hormuz remaining a key factor influencing oil prices and supply forecasts. EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey said the new data will provide “timely context and additional depth” on how Middle Eastern supply disruptions are reshaping global energy balances. The new publication follows earlier reductions in EIA reporting after staffing cuts over the past year.

Cosmo Energy Holdings Buys Mexican Crude for First Time Since 2023

Japanese refiner Cosmo Energy Holdings Co. purchased Mexican crude oil for the first time since 2023 as the Iran war and near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to disrupt Middle Eastern supplies. Tankers Eagle Kuantan and Eagle Kangar are scheduled to load a combined 1 million barrels of Isthmus crude from Petroleos Mexicanos’s Pajaritos terminal for delivery to Japan. More than 90% of Japan’s crude imports normally come from the Middle East, and ongoing disruptions have already impacted industries ranging from food production to medical equipment manufacturing. Cosmo said it has secured alternative supplies from Mexico and the U.S. to maintain operations at its three refineries for the next three months.

Kazakhstan to Cut CPC Oil Exports as Europe Struggles With Supply Crunch

Kazakhstan is set to reduce CPC Blend crude exports from Russia’s Black Sea port to 1.3–1.4 million bpd in June, down from nearly 1.7 million bpd in May, due to maintenance at the Kashagan oil field. The supply reduction comes as European refiners already face severe shortages caused by the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz and disruptions to Middle Eastern crude flows. CPC Blend prices have surged sharply, reaching a record premium of $7.75/bbl to Dated Brent in early April and still trading around $5/bbl above benchmark levels in the spot market. Kazakhstan supplies over 90% of CPC cargoes and ships roughly 80% of its oil exports through the CPC system, making the outage another challenge for Europe’s strained energy market.

Trafigura Reportedly Pays Record Premium for Early-Delivery Hengli VLCC

Trafigura is reportedly acquiring a 306,000-dwt VLCC resale from Hengli Shipbuilding for about $163 million, significantly above the current benchmark VLCC newbuilding price of roughly $130.5 million. The vessel, originally linked to Thanassis Laskaridis’s Alimia Group, is scheduled for delivery in September 2026, with the premium reflecting strong demand for earlier delivery slots amid rising tanker market rates. The deal highlights growing appetite for VLCC tonnage as oil trade disruptions and longer voyage patterns continue to tighten tanker availability worldwide. Trafigura already has 10 VLCCs on order and has also expanded its fleet through secondhand acquisitions, signaling continued bullishness on the crude tanker market.