2026.05.12

Oil Holds Above $100 as Trump Says Iran Ceasefire on ‘Life Support’

Oil prices remained elevated after Donald Trump cast doubt on the Iran ceasefire, saying the truce was on “massive life support” following Tehran’s rejection of the latest US peace proposal. Brent crude stayed above $104 a barrel while WTI traded near $98 as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global crude, LNG, and fuel flows. Iran reportedly demanded sanctions relief and an end to the US naval blockade while still seeking influence over Hormuz traffic, complicating negotiations. Trump is also considering reviving naval escort operations in the strait and plans to raise China’s purchases of Iranian oil during upcoming talks with Xi Jinping.

Trump Says Iran Ceasefire on ‘Life Support,’ Weighs Reviving Project Freedom

US President Donald Trump said the ceasefire with Iran is “barely alive” and on “massive life support,” while signaling that Washington may restart “Project Freedom,” the military operation aimed at escorting commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump harshly rejected Iran’s latest peace proposal as “garbage” and reiterated that Tehran cannot possess nuclear weapons, while hinting that military options remain under review.

Three Tankers Slip Through Hormuz With AIS Switched Off

Three crude tankers successfully exited the Strait of Hormuz with AIS trackers switched off, highlighting growing efforts to keep Middle East oil exports flowing despite rising security risks. The VLCCs Agios Fanourios I and Kiara M each carried 2 million barrels of Iraqi Basrah crude through the strait on Sunday, while Basrah Energy transported 2 million barrels of ADNOC’s Upper Zakum crude after loading at Zirku terminal on 1 May.

VLCC Agios Fanourios I Stops Suddenly After Exiting Hormuz

The 318,000-dwt VLCC Agios Fanourios I unexpectedly halted in the Gulf of Oman after successfully transiting the Strait of Hormuz with a cargo of Iraqi crude bound for Vietnam’s Nghi Son refinery. Tracking data showed the tanker slowing sharply and briefly turning back toward Hormuz near an area where the US is enforcing its blockade on Iranian-linked shipping. While the reason remains unclear, the incident highlights the continued uncertainty and operational risks facing vessels even after managing to exit the Gulf safely. Iranian media had earlier noted that the tanker used Tehran’s approved northern transit route through Hormuz.

US Loans 53 Million SPR Barrels to Ease War-Driven Oil Crisis

The Trump administration will loan 53.3 million barrels of crude from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) to nine companies including Exxon Mobil, Trafigura, and Marathon Petroleum as part of an IEA-coordinated effort to stabilize oil markets disrupted by the Iran war and the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The US has now committed about 133 million barrels toward a broader 172 million-barrel release program, while global IEA members plan to release around 400 million barrels in total. Rising fuel prices — with US gasoline averaging $4.52 per gallon — are increasing political pressure ahead of midterm elections. The SPR currently holds about 384 million barrels, with companies required to repay the oil later in crude plus premiums of up to 24%.

U.S. Imposes New Sanctions on 12 Entities Over Sales of Iranian Oil to China

The US announced fresh sanctions against three individuals and nine companies accused of helping Iran ship oil to China through front companies linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The measures target firms in Hong Kong, the UAE, and Oman, including Ocean Allianz Shipping LLC, Zeus Logistics Group, and Hong Kong Blue Ocean Ltd. Washington said the network helped move Iranian crude using sanctioned shadow fleet tankers and shell companies while funneling money back to Tehran’s military and nuclear programs. The move comes just before planned talks between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, where Iran and the Strait of Hormuz crisis are expected to be key topics.

Saudi Oil Exports to China Seen Slumping Further in June

Saudi Arabia’s crude exports to China for June loading are expected to fall sharply to around 13–14 million barrels, down from about 20 million barrels in May and far below pre-war levels of 40–50 million barrels per month. The decline comes as the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt Gulf oil flows. Traders said all June cargoes to China will be shipped via Aramco’s Yanbu terminal on the Red Sea instead of Hormuz routes. High June official selling prices from Saudi Aramco also discouraged some Asian and European buyers, who turned to cheaper Middle Eastern alternatives such as Murban and Oman crude instead.

Chinese Teapot Refiners Seek Output Cuts

China’s private “teapot” refiners are asking Beijing for permission to reduce refinery run rates after being ordered in April to maintain production at all costs to protect domestic fuel supply. The government directive pushed processing activity to its highest level in nearly two years, but soaring crude prices linked to the Persian Gulf conflict caused heavy financial losses and swelling gasoline and diesel inventories, especially in Shandong. Despite years of tension with regulators over consolidation efforts, the smaller refiners remain strategically important for China’s energy security during supply crises.

Japan Set to Receive First Azerbaijani Crude Cargo Since Iran War Began

Japan is set to receive its first Central Asian crude cargo since the Iran war began, as a tanker carrying Azerbaijani oil sourced by INPEX Corp is expected to arrive as early as Tuesday. The move highlights Japan’s effort to reduce dependence on the Strait of Hormuz, with Azerbaijani crude shipped via Turkey’s Ceyhan port instead of the Persian Gulf route. Japan is also reviewing Kazakh and US crude imports while tapping strategic reserves to stabilize supply. Meanwhile, Idemitsu Tanker’s 302,000-dwt VLCC *Idemitsu Maru* (built 2007), carrying 2 million barrels of Saudi crude, successfully exited the Gulf and is now heading toward Nagoya, marking a rare Japanese crude transit during the conflict.

Thai Oil Shifts Crude Imports to Africa and Americas

Thai Oil is sharply reducing reliance on Middle Eastern crude, cutting its share from 91% to 35% while boosting imports from Africa (39%) and the Americas (18%) to secure supply amid ongoing Strait of Hormuz disruptions. The refiner is running above capacity at 300kbd to meet domestic demand, but weaker fuel consumption has led to rising diesel and jet fuel inventories. Despite strong Q1 earnings driven by inventory gains, the company warned margins may weaken in coming months as higher crude costs and potential inventory losses pressure profitability.

Panama Canal Auction Fees Hit Record $4 Million Amid Tanker Rush

Panama Canal transit slot prices have surged to record highs as tanker traffic from the US Gulf to Asia spikes due to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Brokers said some shipowners paid up to $4 million at auction for priority passage, while standard spot transit fees climbed near $400,000. BRS Shipbrokers noted tanker transits jumped sharply year-on-year, with April crossings rising from 27 to 100, mainly driven by product tankers. The congestion is boosting alternative Cape of Good Hope routing and supporting tanker earnings, with VLGC rates nearing a record $170,000 per day and eco-VLCC rates recovering toward $120,000 daily amid stronger US export flows.