Oil Jumps on Iran Tensions as Brent Tops $105

Crude prices surged as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf reportedly quit talks and air defenses engaged targets over Tehran, signaling escalating conflict and internal power struggles. Brent settled at $105.07 and WTI at $95.85, each rising over 3% after briefly spiking by about $5. Uncertainty driven by mixed signals from Donald Trump and ongoing military risks continues to fuel market volatility. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz remains heavily restricted, sustaining concerns over global oil supply disruptions.

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Headlines

· Oil Jumps on Iran Tensions as Brent Tops $105

· Trump Rules Out Nuclear Use in Iran War

· Trump Says Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire to Be Extended by Three Weeks

· Trump Attack Order Highlights Threat from Iran’s ‘Mosquito Fleet’ in Hormuz

· US Emergency Oil Flows to Europe as Iran War Disrupts Supply

· European Refineries Max Out Jet Fuel

· Italy’s Meloni Says EU Energy Plans Not Enough

· EU Sanctions Package Drops Full Maritime Ban on Russian Oil

· Mexico to Supply 1 Million Barrels of Crude to Japan

· Japan Seeks Saudi Support to Secure Oil Supplies

· Trump Extends Jones Act Waiver as Foreign Tankers Begin US Oil Shipments

· Unusual U.S. West Coast Diesel Shipments Send 1.45 Million Barrels to Australia

· Dangote Plans East Africa Refinery to Cut Reliance on Middle East Fuel

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Trump Rules Out Nuclear Use in Iran War

Donald Trump said the U.S. will not use nuclear weapons in the Iran war, emphasizing that conventional military action has already been sufficient while calling nuclear use unacceptable. He signaled patience on negotiations, aiming for a long-term deal with Iran rather than a quick agreement, despite ongoing tensions after the ceasefire. Trump also warned that gasoline prices will remain elevated “for a little while” as the conflict continues to disrupt global energy markets.

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Trump Attack Order Highlights Threat from Iran’s ‘Mosquito Fleet’ in Hormuz

Donald Trump ordered the U.S. Navy to “shoot and kill” Iranian small boats, citing concerns they may be laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The move underscores the growing threat from Iran’s so-called “mosquito fleet”—swarms of fast attack boats that can challenge larger naval forces through asymmetric tactics. Despite U.S. claims that Iran’s conventional navy is weakened, experts warn these small vessels, combined with missiles and drones, can still disrupt or control key shipping routes.

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Trump Extends Jones Act Waiver as Foreign Tankers Begin US Oil Shipments

Donald Trump is moving to extend the Jones Act waiver by 90 days, allowing foreign vessels to transport fuel between U.S. ports to ease supply pressures from the Iran war. The waiver has already enabled about 9 million barrels of domestic shipments, though critics argue the impact on fuel prices is minimal and raises concerns over jobs and security. Meanwhile, Phillips 66 completed the first foreign-flagged shipment of U.S. crude from Texas to the East Coast under the exemption. The move signals growing reliance on international shipping to support U.S. energy logistics during market disruptions.

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US Emergency Oil Flows to Europe as Iran War Disrupts Supply

The U.S. is releasing large volumes from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with at least 4 million barrels already sold to Europe and more potentially heading to Asia as global supply chains are disrupted. The Donald Trump administration plans to release up to 172 million barrels, with nearly 80 million barrels already allocated, much of it expected to reach overseas markets. While this helps ease shortages, concerns remain over oil quality and whether it can fully offset the prolonged supply shock.

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European Refineries Max Out Jet Fuel

Shell plc said European refineries are operating at full capacity in “max jet mode” to meet soaring demand for aviation fuel as the Iran war disrupts supply. The near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz has cut off key Middle Eastern imports, forcing refiners to seek alternative crude sources. Despite ramped-up production, higher crude costs are squeezing refinery margins while airlines face rising fuel expenses and flight cuts. The jet fuel shortage is emerging as a critical bottleneck for the global aviation industry.

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EU Sanctions Package Drops Full Maritime Ban on Russian Oil

The European Union unveiled a new sanctions package against Russia but excluded a full maritime services ban on Russian oil shipments due to internal disagreements, notably from Hungary. Instead, the bloc agreed only on a framework for a potential future ban, which would be coordinated with G7 partners. The package includes additional measures such as blacklisting more ships and a Russian maritime insurer, and tighter checks on tanker sales linked to the shadow fleet. While the move accompanies a major financial package for Ukraine, critics say the absence of a full ban limits its immediate impact on Russian oil exports.

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Mexico to Supply 1 Million Barrels of Crude to Japan

Mexico will send 1 million barrels of crude oil to Japan under a bilateral agreement confirmed by President Claudia Sheinbaum. The deal, requested by Japan through Pemex, comes as the Iran conflict disrupts global energy supplies and prompts countries to secure alternative sources. Mexico produces around 1.4 million bpd for domestic refining, exporting the remaining 400,000–500,000 bpd, making this shipment a notable allocation. The agreement also reflects broader efforts between Mexico and Japan to strengthen energy cooperation and trade ties amid ongoing market instability.

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Japan Seeks Saudi Support to Secure Oil Supplies

Sanae Takaichi requested increased energy supply from Mohammed bin Salman as concerns grow over disruptions linked to the Iran conflict. Japan, which imports over 90% of its oil from the Middle East, is particularly vulnerable due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia signaled a positive response, with ongoing shipments already being routed via Yanbu. The move is part of Japan’s broader diplomatic push to secure alternative energy sources and stabilize supply.

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Dangote Plans East Africa Refinery to Cut Reliance on Middle East Fuel

Aliko Dangote pledged to build a major oil refinery in Tanzania, aiming to reduce East Africa’s heavy dependence on imported fuel amid disruptions from the Iran war. The project includes a pipeline linking Kenya’s Mombasa to Tanzania’s Tanga, with the refinery expected to be completed within 4–5 years. It will process crude from regional producers such as South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo, strengthening local energy security. The move reflects a broader push by African nations to develop domestic refining capacity and shield their economies from global supply shocks.