Oil Climbs Above $110 as Trump Escalates Pressure Over Hormuz

Oil prices climbed sharply, with Brent rising above $110 per barrel and WTI nearing $113, as U.S. President Donald Trump intensified threats against Iran over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The rally reflects ongoing supply concerns as the key waterway remains largely shut, restricting global energy flows. Trump issued a new ultimatum and warned of potential strikes on Iranian infrastructure if the strait is not reopened. Markets remain highly volatile, with geopolitical tensions continuing to drive price swings and risk premiums.

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Headlines

· Oil Climbs Above $110 as Trump Escalates Pressure Over Hormuz

· Trump Threatens Iran with “Hell” as Tensions Escalate Over Hormuz

· Gulf Oil Facilities Hit by Drone Attacks, Fires Halt Abu Dhabi Plant and Damage Kuwait Sites

· Iran Grants Iraq Exemption from Hormuz Restrictions

· Petronas-Linked Tanker Transits Hormuz as Iran Grants Selective Passage

· US Intelligence Warns Iran Unlikely to Reopen Hormuz as Leverage Tool

· OPEC+ to Raise Oil Output Quotas by 206,000 Barrels Per Day in May

· Iran Conflict Drags Crude Tanker Tonne-Miles Below Pandemic Levels

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Trump Threatens Iran with “Hell” as Tensions Escalate Over Hormuz

U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened severe military action against Iran, warning it would face “hell” if it does not reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The ultimatum includes potential strikes on key infrastructure such as power plants and bridges, marking a sharp escalation in rhetoric. The warning comes amid ongoing conflict and a recent high-risk mission to rescue a downed U.S. airman, further intensifying tensions between the two countries. Iran has rejected the demands and warned it would retaliate against any attacks on its infrastructure. 

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Iran Grants Iraq Exemption from Hormuz Restrictions

Iran has announced that Iraqi vessels are exempt from its shipping restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, offering a rare easing amid widespread disruptions. The decision allows Iraqi oil exports to continue through the waterway, which normally carries about 20% of global oil trade. Tehran described Iraq as a “brotherly” nation, while restrictions remain in place for countries considered hostile. The exemption could partially alleviate global supply shortages by enabling additional crude flows despite the broader blockade. However, analysts note that overall transit remains severely limited, with most shipping still subject to strict controls and geopolitical risk.

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Petronas-Linked Tanker Transits Hormuz as Iran Grants Selective Passage

A tanker chartered by a unit of Malaysia’s Petronas has successfully passed through the Strait of Hormuz carrying about 1 million barrels of Basrah Heavy crude from Iraq. The vessel, Ocean Thunder, is expected to discharge in Pengerang, Malaysia, in mid-April, highlighting limited but ongoing transit under Iran’s selective clearance system. Iran has allowed passage for certain countries, with at least seven Malaysia-linked vessels approved while restricting ships with U.S. or Israeli ties.

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OPEC+ to Raise Oil Output Quotas by 206,000 Barrels Per Day in May

OPEC+ has agreed to raise oil output quotas by 206,000 bpd for May, though the increase will have little immediate impact due to ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. The closure has removed an estimated 12–15 million bpd, or up to 15% of global supply, marking the largest oil supply disruption on record. The planned increase represents less than 2% of lost supply and is largely symbolic until exports can resume. Crude prices have surged close to $120 per barrel, with analysts warning they could exceed $150 if disruptions persist into mid-May.

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Iran Conflict Drags Crude Tanker Tonne-Miles Below Pandemic Levels

Crude tanker tonne-miles have dropped well below pandemic-era levels, with Veson Nautical data showing a broad contraction across VLCC, Suezmax, and Aframax segments. The decline is most pronounced in the VLCC sector, reflecting a sharp reduction in long-haul crude movements linked to disruptions from the Iran conflict. Geopolitical tensions have curtailed key export flows and altered trade patterns, leading to both fewer cargoes and shorter voyage distances, which together significantly reduce tonne-mile demand. Unlike previous disruptions such as the Red Sea crisis that boosted tonne-miles through rerouting, the current situation is actively destroying demand rather than extending voyage lengths. Overall, the data points to a clear weakening in crude tanker market fundamentals despite heightened geopolitical risk.

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Sanctioned Aframax Reroutes Iran Crude to China

A US-sanctioned Aframax tanker, Ping Shun (113,000 dwt), carrying Iranian crude abruptly changed course from India to China, according to ship-tracking data. The vessel, built in 2002 and loaded with roughly 600,000 barrels of oil, had initially signaled discharge at Vadinar, India, which would have marked India’s first Iranian crude import in nearly 7 years. It instead redirected toward Dongying, China, highlighting how sanctions and payment constraints are reshaping trade flows. The diversion is linked to tightening payment terms and increased risks for buyers handling sanctioned cargoes. Overall, the case underscores China’s continued role as the primary destination for sanctioned Iranian crude amid geopolitical and financial pressures.

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Russia’s Key Baltic Port Ust-Luga Resumes Crude Loading

Russia’s key Baltic port of Ust-Luga has resumed crude loading after disruptions caused by recent Ukrainian drone attacks. The port, which typically handles around 700,000 bpd of crude exports, had suspended operations following damage to infrastructure. Loading has restarted at reduced capacity, highlighting ongoing constraints on Russia’s export system. The resumption offers some relief to global supply, though broader disruptions to Russian energy infrastructure continue to limit flows.

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Sweden Seizes Sanctioned Tanker Linked to Baltic Oil Spill

Sweden has seized the tanker Flora 1, suspected to be part of Russia’s shadow fleet and linked to a 12 km oil spill near the island of Gotland. The vessel had departed from the Russian port of Primorsk and is believed to be operating under unclear flag status while listed under EU sanctions. Authorities have launched an investigation into a suspected environmental crime, though officials say the spill is not expected to reach shore. The incident highlights growing concerns over aging, poorly insured tankers used to evade sanctions and continue Russian oil exports. European governments are intensifying efforts to crack down on the shadow fleet amid rising environmental and security risks.