Oil Prices Fall as Trump Signals Imminent End to Iran War

Oil prices dropped as investors bet that U.S. President Donald Trump may signal a near-term withdrawal from the Iran war in an upcoming national address. Brent crude fell $1.16 (1.15%) to around $100 per barrel, while WTI declined $1.41 (1.41%) to $98.71, extending earlier losses. Markets expect a more dovish stance that could ease supply concerns, though uncertainty remains over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts warn that without a formal ceasefire ensuring safe passage, a geopolitical risk premium could persist in oil prices.

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Headlines

· Oil Prices Fall as Trump Signals Imminent End to Iran War

· Trump: Iran seeks ceasefire, U.S. demands Hormuz open first

· Iran Rejects Trump’s Ceasefire Claim as “Baseless” Amid Ongoing War

· Iranian Missile Hits QatarEnergy Tanker as Gulf Tensions Escalate

· US and Israel Intensify Strikes on Iran’s Civilian Infrastructure

· UAE Pushes UN to Authorize Force to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

· Ships Pay Iran in Yuan and Crypto to Transit Strait of Hormuz

· China Gains Strategic Edge from Iran War as Energy Shock Hits Rivals

· US Gulf Tanker Market Tightens as Asia Scrambles for Alternative Oil Supplies

· US Fuel Exports Surge to Record as Global Shortages Drive Demand

· US Naphtha Exports Hit Record as Asia and Venezuela Rush for Supply

· Saudi Arabia Set to Raise May Oil Prices to Record Highs for Asia

· IEA Warns Middle East Supply Shock to Hit Europe as Losses Deepen in April

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Iranian Missile Hits QatarEnergy Tanker as Gulf Tensions Escalate

An oil tanker leased to QatarEnergy was struck by an Iranian cruise missile in Qatari waters, with two additional missiles intercepted and no casualties reported. The vessel, Aqua 1, was hit about 17 nautical miles from Ras Laffan, sustaining damage above the waterline without causing environmental impact. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said the attack targeted the tanker due to alleged ties with Israel. The incident comes amid escalating regional conflict that has already knocked out about 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity.

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UAE Pushes UN to Authorize Force to Reopen Strait of Hormuz

The United Arab Emirates is urging the United Nations to approve measures, including the possible use of force, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz as the Iran war disrupts global energy flows. The strait, which carries about 20% of global oil shipments, remains heavily restricted, prompting the UAE to seek international backing for a coordinated response. The proposal includes forming a multinational coalition and securing a UN Security Council resolution to legitimize military or security operations. However, the plan faces significant geopolitical hurdles, with potential vetoes from Russia and China and hesitation among allies to commit forces.

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Ships Pay Iran in Yuan and Crypto to Transit Strait of Hormuz

Ship operators are paying tolls in Chinese yuan and cryptocurrencies to secure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz, as Iran tightens control over the critical energy chokepoint. Vessels must coordinate with intermediaries linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, submit detailed documentation, and negotiate fees before being allowed transit. Payments can be structured at roughly $1 per barrel of oil or even reach up to $2 million per voyage, depending on cargo and origin. The system favors ships from “friendly” nations.

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China Gains Strategic Edge from Iran War as Energy Shock Hits Rivals

China is emerging as a relative winner from the Iran war as its diversified energy strategy and preparedness cushion the impact of global supply disruptions. The country holds significant strategic oil reserves—enough for roughly 110 days—and relies less on oil and gas, which make up about 28% of its energy mix, compared with higher exposure in other economies. Strong investment in renewables and domestic energy production has further insulated China from price shocks, while global investors increasingly view it as a stable market amid volatility.

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US Gulf Tanker Market Tightens as Asia Scrambles for Alternative Oil Supplies

Tanker availability along the U.S. Gulf Coast has dropped sharply as Asian and European buyers seek alternative supplies amid disruptions from the Iran war. Net vessel availability has fallen by 41% over the past month, while VLCC numbers declined from 20 to 10 ships, reflecting intense demand for transport capacity. Freight rates have surged dramatically, with Suezmax and Aframax tankers earning over $300,000 per day compared to about $60,000 previously. Strong demand is also driven by U.S. crude trading at more than a $10 discount to Brent, encouraging long-haul shipments to Asia. The tightening market and rising transport costs are expected to increase global fuel prices, potentially impacting broader economic activity.

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US Fuel Exports Surge to Record as Global Shortages Drive Demand

U.S. refined fuel exports reached a record 3.11 million bpd in March, up from 2.5 million bpd in February, as global buyers sought to replace lost Middle Eastern supplies. Exports to Europe rose 27% to 414,000 bpd, shipments to Asia more than doubled to 224,000 bpd, and flows to Africa jumped 169% to 148,000 bpd. Unusual flows included 72,000 bpd shipped from the U.S. East Coast to Europe, despite the region typically importing fuel. While exports boost margins, rising domestic fuel prices above $4 per gallon for gasoline and nearly $5.50 for diesel are creating political pressure on U.S. President Donald Trump.

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US Naphtha Exports Hit Record as Asia and Venezuela Rush for Supply

U.S. naphtha exports surged to a record 493,000 bpd as buyers in Asia and Venezuela sought alternatives amid supply disruptions caused by the Iran war. Shipments to Asia reached about 130,000 bpd, including 71,000 bpd to Japan—the highest since December 2021—and around 50,000 bpd to South Korea. Venezuela imported roughly 140,000 bpd, the highest on record, as it uses naphtha to dilute heavy crude and boost production. The surge reflects major disruptions to Middle Eastern supply, which normally provides about 60% of Asia’s naphtha imports, or around 35 million barrels per month. Rising demand has also driven freight costs sharply higher, with shipments from the U.S. Gulf Coast to Japan costing about $9.6 million per cargo, roughly double pre-war levels.

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Venezuela Oil Exports Top 1 Million bpd as Trade Flows Rebound

Venezuela’s oil exports rose above 1 million bpd in March, reaching 1.09 million bpd for the first time in six months, driven by stronger demand from India and increased shipments for storage in the Caribbean. Exports were carried by 60 vessels, alongside 360,000 metric tons of petrochemicals and byproducts, reflecting a broad recovery in outbound flows. The rebound follows a January agreement between Caracas and Washington that enabled sales under U.S. oversight and allowed firms like Vitol, Trafigura, and Chevron to expand exports. Trading houses handled about 635,000 bpd, while Chevron’s exports increased to 267,000 bpd from 209,000 bpd in February. The use of larger tankers and efforts to clear accumulated inventories have accelerated shipments, signaling improving export capacity despite recent disruptions.

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Kazakhstan Oil Output Rebounds as Tengiz Field Recovers from Disruptions

Kazakhstan’s oil production rose about 2% in March as output at the Tengiz field recovered following a January shutdown caused by power station fires. The field produced an average of 700,000 bpd, up 19% from February, and reached a peak of 978,000 bpd on March 31, exceeding its planned 930,000 bpd. Overall crude production in the country increased to 1.64 million bpd from 1.58 million bpd the previous month. Despite the recovery, export capacity remains constrained by weather conditions and security risks, including potential drone attacks on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium route. Ongoing disruptions at Russian ports are also limiting Kazakhstan’s ability to fully capitalize on rising output.