Brent Nears Record Monthly Surge on Widening Iran Conflict

Oil prices continued to climb, with Brent on track for a record monthly jump after the Iran war expanded beyond the Persian Gulf, including new attacks by Yemen’s Houthis on Israel. Brent rose to about $115.66 per barrel and is up roughly 59% this month, surpassing gains seen during the Gulf War, while WTI climbed above $102. The conflict has effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz and is now spreading to key chokepoints like the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb, heightening risks to global oil flows. Saudi exports rerouted to the Red Sea’s Yanbu port reached about 4.66 million bpd, but further disruptions could force reliance on alternative routes such as Egypt’s SUMED pipeline.

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Headlines

· Brent Nears Record Monthly Surge on Widening Iran Conflict

· Houthis Open New Front in Iran War, Raising Fresh Threats to Global Shipping

· Trump says Iran accepts key terms in peace plan as talks advance

· Chinese ships retreat from Hormuz despite Iran’s safe passage pledge

· Vietnam oil firm seeks shipowners for risky Hormuz crossings under Iran waiver

· Iran Signals Spain as First EU Country Cleared for Hormuz Transit

· India turns back to Russia for energy amid Iran war

· Philippine Refiner Turns to Russian Crude

· US Set to Allow Russian Oil Tanker Into Cuba, Easing Energy Crisis

· Sanctioned Sovcomflot tanker nears Cuba with vital crude cargo

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Houthis Open New Front in Iran War, Raising Fresh Threats to Global Shipping

Iran-backed Houthi forces have entered the Iran war by launching attacks on Israel, opening a new front that heightens risks to global shipping routes. Their involvement raises concerns over potential disruptions in key chokepoints such as the Red Sea and Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which handle a significant share of global trade. The escalation comes as the broader conflict continues to impact energy flows and maritime security across the Middle East. Analysts warn that if Houthi attacks extend to commercial vessels, the impact on oil markets and global supply chains could intensify further.

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Trump says Iran accepts key terms in peace plan as talks advance

Trump said Iran has accepted many elements of a U.S. peace proposal to end the war and claimed negotiations are progressing well, while extending a pause on attacks against Iranian energy infrastructure. However, the U.S. plan—reportedly a 15-point framework—demands major concessions such as dismantling nuclear facilities, limiting missile capabilities, and curbing regional proxy activities. Iran has pushed back, calling the proposal one-sided and unfair, and no direct agreement has been reached. Mediation efforts involving countries like Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt continue, but uncertainty remains high as military tensions and troop deployments persist alongside fragile diplomatic momentum.

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Chinese ships retreat from Hormuz despite Iran’s safe passage pledge

Two Chinese container vessels operated by COSCO Shipping aborted attempts to exit the Strait of Hormuz despite Iran’s assurances of safe passage for “friendly nations.” The ships briefly entered the strait before turning back, highlighting that safe transit cannot be guaranteed amid ongoing conflict risks. While Iran says it allows passage selectively, attacks and threats have stranded hundreds of vessels and effectively halted major energy exports from the region. Limited movements—such as some Indian and Thai ships—have occurred via diplomatic coordination, but overall traffic remains highly restricted and uncertain.

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Iran Signals Spain as First EU Country Cleared for Hormuz Transit

Iran has indicated that Spain could become the first European Union country allowed to transit the Strait of Hormuz, signaling a selective easing of restrictions amid ongoing conflict disruptions. Tehran said it is “receptive” to requests from Madrid, citing Spain’s stance on international law and its relatively neutral position in the conflict. The move highlights Iran’s strategy of granting passage to “non-hostile” nations while maintaining tight control over the key chokepoint.

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West African crude trade slows as sellers hold back cargoes

West African oil flows for April loading have slowed despite tight global supply, as producers hold back cargoes for their own refineries unless higher bids emerge. Around 20 cargoes remain available, with up to 15 potentially kept for domestic refining, showing sellers are not under pressure to offload barrels. Prices have surged, with Nigeria’s Bonny Light trading at about a $7.50-per-barrel premium to Brent, the highest since the 2022 Ukraine war. High freight costs and uncertainty over further market tightening are also limiting deals, while key buyers like China and India—which together account for nearly 40% of exports—are increasingly turning to cheaper alternatives such as Russian and Iranian crude.

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Asian refiners pivot to Brent pricing as Dubai benchmark spikes

Asian refiners are shifting U.S. crude pricing from the Dubai benchmark to Brent crude after Dubai prices surged to record highs, even exceeding Brent amid Middle East supply disruptions. Japanese buyers, including Taiyo Oil, have already secured U.S. cargoes priced against Brent, signaling an early shift in trading practices. The spike—driven by reduced tradable Middle East crude and Strait of Hormuz disruptions—has also led some refiners to ask Saudi Aramco to switch its pricing benchmark. The move could weaken liquidity in the Dubai derivatives market as traders increasingly hedge using Brent instead.

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Ukraine drone strikes hit Russia’s Ust-Luga port again

Russia’s key Baltic export hub at Ust-Luga was struck again by Ukrainian drones, causing a fire that was later brought under control but adding to ongoing disruptions in oil shipments. The port, which handles around 700,000 bpd of crude exports and shipped about 32.9 million tonnes of oil products in 2025, has faced repeated attacks alongside nearby Primorsk, forcing temporary loading suspensions. The strikes come as global oil prices exceed $100 amid the Iran war, amplifying supply concerns and highlighting risks to one of Russia’s most critical export corridors.

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Russia to curb gasoline exports amid market volatility

Russia will introduce a gasoline export ban from April 1 through July to stabilise domestic supply and control rising fuel prices amid global market turmoil. The move follows price volatility triggered by the Middle East crisis and strong international demand for Russian energy. Despite steady refining volumes, past refinery disruptions and seasonal demand have led to local shortages, prompting repeated export curbs. Russia exported about 5 million tons of gasoline last year, but the new restriction signals a priority shift toward domestic market stability.

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Sanctioned Sovcomflot tanker nears Cuba with vital crude cargo

A sanctioned tanker operated by Russian state shipowner Sovcomflot is believed to be close to delivering a major crude cargo to Cuba, potentially easing the island’s severe fuel shortages. The LR2 tanker Anatoly Kolodkin, which loaded roughly 650,000–730,000 barrels of Russian crude, was tracked heading toward Cuba and is expected to discharge at the Matanzas terminal. The voyage has drawn attention as it tests Western sanctions enforcement, with the vessel previously monitored by authorities while en route. If successfully delivered, the cargo could provide temporary relief to Cuba, which has been struggling with blackouts and limited fuel imports amid tightening US restrictions.