Oil Holds Near Six-Month High as Iran Talks and Tariffs Cloud Outlook

Oil prices eased slightly but remained near six-month highs as markets focused on upcoming nuclear talks between the US and Iran in Geneva. Brent crude settled around $71.49 a barrel after rising more than 5% last week on fears of potential military conflict, while WTI also edged lower. Iran has signaled willingness to make concessions on its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief, though analysts say geopolitical risks remain elevated. At the same time, uncertainty surrounding US trade policy after a Supreme Court ruling on President Donald Trump’s tariffs has added economic jitters. Traders are balancing diplomatic developments and tariff volatility against supply risks and seasonal demand factors in the US.

___________________________________

EU Fails to Agree on Full Maritime Services Ban for Russian Oil

The European Union failed to reach agreement on a proposed 20th sanctions package that would have imposed a full maritime services ban on Russian oil exports and scrapped the existing price cap system. Foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas called the outcome a setback, with Hungary blocking the measures amid disputes over disrupted oil flows through a Soviet-era pipeline. The proposed package would have ended EU-linked shipping, insurance and services for Russian crude, forcing Moscow to rely more heavily on non-EU tonnage and its shadow fleet. The current price cap — most recently lowered to $44.10 per barrel — remains in place

___________________________________

Ukrainian Drone Strike Hits Druzhba Pipeline Facility in Russia

Ukrainian drones struck a pumping station linked to the Druzhba oil pipeline in Russia’s Tatarstan region, according to a Ukrainian security official, triggering a fire near the city of Almetyevsk. The facility supports exports of Russian crude to eastern Europe, though the broader impact on flows was not immediately clear. The incident adds strain to relations between Ukraine and Hungary and Slovakia, both heavily reliant on oil delivered via Druzhba and already facing disrupted shipments since late January. Hungary has accused Kyiv of undermining its energy security and, under Prime Minister Viktor Orban, moved to block further EU sanctions on Russia and a major loan package for Ukraine.

___________________________________

West African Crude Discounts Deepen as Freight and EFS Weigh on Demand

West African crude prices are coming under heavy pressure as soaring freight rates and a widening Brent-Dubai EFS spread undermine demand from Asian buyers. Higher shipping costs — with VLCC earnings on the Middle East Gulf–China route climbing to multi-year highs — have made long-haul cargoes from Angola and Nigeria less competitive compared with shorter-haul Middle Eastern supplies. At the same time, the Brent-Dubai EFS has risen to around $2 per barrel, making Brent-linked grades from West Africa, the North Sea and Mediterranean less attractive to Asian refiners. Traders report Nigerian differentials have weakened and offers for Congolese Djeno crude have failed to attract buyers even at deeper discounts.

___________________________________

Saudi Aramco Sells First Jafurah Condensate Cargoes to US and Indian Buyers

Saudi Aramco has sold its first cargoes of ultra-light condensate from the massive Jafurah gas project to buyers including Chevron, Exxon Mobil and Indian Oil Corp, as it prepares to begin exports later this month. The cargoes were reportedly priced at premiums of $2 to $3 per barrel above Dubai benchmarks on a free-on-board basis. Jafurah, considered the largest shale gas development outside the US, is central to Aramco’s strategy to expand gas production and diversify into lighter crude grades, with sustainable output targeted at 2 billion cubic feet per day by 2030. The condensate, which is rich in petrochemical feedstock naphtha, is expected to be exported in multiple 500,000-barrel shipments per month. The initial sales mark a key step in positioning Jafurah as a new source of light crude supply in global markets.

___________________________________

Diesel Trade Flows Reshuffle as EU Sanctions Redirect Russian Exports

U.S. diesel exports to the European Union surged to record highs in January after tighter restrictions on Russian-derived fuel widened Europe’s supply gap, while discounted shipments from Russia increasingly flowed to Brazil. The shift has allowed U.S. refiners to capture premium European markets, with exports reaching as much as 410,000 bpd, while Indian diesel shipments to Europe fell sharply amid scrutiny over Russian crude usage. At the same time, Russian diesel exports rose nearly 20% month-on-month, with Brazil and Turkey among the largest buyers, displacing U.S. barrels in Latin America. Analysts say easing drone attacks on Russian refineries and attractive pricing have supported Moscow’s export rebound. However, the current trade pattern may prove temporary as U.S. refinery maintenance, freight costs and potential changes in India’s crude sourcing could again alter global diesel flows.

___________________________________

European Diesel Margins Climb as Refinery Maintenance Tightens Supply

European diesel refining margins rose more than 3.5% to their highest level since early December, supported by the spring refinery maintenance season and weather-related supply disruptions in North America. Low-sulphur gasoil futures traded at nearly $26 per barrel above Brent crude, reflecting tighter product availability. Strong transatlantic trade flows have also underpinned the market, with US diesel exports to Europe reaching record highs after the European Union strengthened its ban on Russian-derived fuel. Meanwhile, diesel and gasoil imports into the EU and UK are on track to rise further in February, highlighting ongoing supply reshuffling in the global distillates market.

___________________________________

Chevron Enters Exclusive Talks to Take Over West Qurna 2 Oilfield

Chevron has entered exclusive one-year negotiations with Iraq to take over the giant West Qurna 2 oilfield from sanctioned Russian firm Lukoil. Iraq nationalized the field after US sanctions made it difficult for Lukoil to continue operations, with West Qurna 2 accounting for about 0.5% of global oil supply and nearly 10% of Iraq’s production. The agreement allows for the temporary transfer of the contract to Iraq’s Basra Oil Company before it is reassigned to Chevron, pending final terms and regulatory approvals, including from US authorities. Chevron has indicated that improved economic terms will be key to concluding a deal. If completed, the move would significantly expand Chevron’s footprint in Iraq as part of its broader international growth strategy.

___________________________________

How Tanker Veterans Capitalize on a ‘Buy-and-Hold’ Approach in the Volatile VLCC Market

Poten & Partners argues that legendary tanker-owning families have consistently profited in the volatile VLCC market by sticking to a long-term buy-and-hold strategy. Over 20 to 25 years, spot earnings can swing from near zero to above $100,000 per day and asset prices fluctuate sharply, yet experienced owners avoid costly market timing and ride out the cycles. Figures such as Aristotle Onassis, Stavros Niarchos and John Fredriksen exemplify this long-term approach. One example cited is a 17-year-old VLCC delivered into the financial crisis that was held through downturns and reportedly generated $100m–$140m in free cash flow before being sold for $70m in 2026. The report concludes that in an unpredictable, geopolitically sensitive tanker market, disciplined operations and low leverage combined with patience may remain the most reliable path to sustainable returns.