2024.09.09

APPEC 2024 : weak oil demand and OPEC+ supply cuts take center stage

The upcoming APPEC 2024 in Singapore will focus on concerns over weak oil demand, particularly from China and Asia, amid a backdrop of falling global oil prices. Over 1,000 participants from 50+ countries will discuss oil supply, demand, and prices. OPEC+ supply cut reversals and global economic slowdowns are major topics, with refiners in Asia facing low margins. Analysts highlight that demand concerns will likely dominate, with China's economic situation and the potential effects of the U.S. election on oil markets playing key roles. Brent crude prices have unexpectedly weakened, and the event will explore its implications.

[SLOW] EIA - Crude Oil Outlook

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[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/ _ Hafnia Nile

Hafnia CEO calls for action against dark tankers after collision highlights regulatory gaps

Hafnia's CEO, Mikael Skov, expressed disappointment at the lack of political will to address the risks posed by the "dark fleet" of tankers trading in sanctioned oil, which often turn off their AIS (Automatic Identification System). This follows a serious collision in July between Hafnia's tanker Hafnia Nile and a VLCC of uncertain ownership, Ceres I, near the Singapore Strait. Despite the potential for disaster, regulators have been slow to act. Skov believes that the issue could be easily resolved with the right regulatory approach, but the necessary action has not been taken. Fortunately, no major oil spill occurred, and the cargo transfer was completed after six weeks.

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[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/ _ Kashagan oil field

Kazakhstan to cut oil production in October for Kashagan maintenance

Kazakhstan's energy ministry announced that oil production will significantly decline during the scheduled maintenance of its Kashagan oilfield in October. The country remains committed to the OPEC+ agreement and is taking steps to meet its production quotas, after surpassing them earlier this year. Although delaying maintenance was discussed due to concerns about natural gas shortages, the decision was made to proceed with the maintenance as planned. This move is aimed at ensuring Kazakhstan fulfills its obligations to the OPEC+ agreement.

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[SLOW] Oil Market _ Refinery Margin

Asian refining margins hit lowest seasonal levels since 2020

Asian refining margins have dropped to their lowest seasonal levels since 2020 due to a rise in diesel and gasoline supplies following the end of peak summer demand. Persistent weak margins may lead to further reductions in output, adding to earlier cuts. Singapore's complex refining margins fell to $1.62 per barrel, with average margins down 68% compared to last month. China and Europe's weakening demand, coupled with high inventories, have contributed to this decline. Despite this, naphtha margins and demand for Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO) are providing some support. Refineries in the region are adjusting operations to cope with the situation.

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[SLOW] https://slowspace.io/ 

Strengthening Gulf Storm Threatens Texas and Louisiana with Heavy Rain and Potential Hurricane

A storm system in the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to intensify into a hurricane this week, potentially impacting the Texas and Louisiana coasts with heavy rain, strong winds, and dangerous storm surges. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) expects the system to become Tropical Storm Francine on Monday, with the possibility of further strengthening into a hurricane by Tuesday night. The storm could disrupt offshore oil and gas production, as evacuations may be necessary. Rainfall could reach up to 12 inches, posing risks of flash flooding. Francine would be the third named storm to hit the U.S. mainland this year.