Oil Prices Rise Slightly Amid Weaker Dollar, Trade Uncertainty, and OPEC+ Signals

Oil prices climbed slightly on Thursday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and investor uncertainty over global economic signals. Brent crude settled at $66.55 per barrel, while WTI crude ended at $62.79. A dip in the U.S. dollar made oil cheaper for buyers using other currencies, boosting demand. Meanwhile, mixed U.S. economic data showed slight increases in unemployment claims, even as the labor market remained resilient amid trade tensions. Conflicting messages on tariffs and weak progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations added to market volatility. Hopes of resumed talks between Iran and Europe raised the possibility of lifted sanctions on Iranian oil, which could impact supply. On the geopolitical front, tensions rose with Russia's attacks on Kyiv and mixed U.S. statements on the Ukraine war's effect on oil flow. Amid this uncertainty, OPEC+ members are considering accelerating output hikes, raising concerns about oversupply in a strained global economy.

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VLCC market surges as OPEC+ production hikes fuel earnings momentum

VLCC rates are climbing again, with Jefferies reporting eco-designed vessel earnings reaching $55,700 per day on Thursday. Analyst Omar Nokta described the week as "pivotal," crediting the rise to increased OPEC+ cargo flow, cheaper Saudi Aramco pricing, and pre-Easter fixture activity. Rates jumped from $40,600 mid-week to $51,300 by Friday, while Clarksons reported $57,400 per day by Thursday. Owners are now leading rate negotiations, with brokers expecting further increases. Reuters reports some OPEC+ members want to accelerate production hikes beyond the already scheduled 411,000 bpd increase in May. If this materializes, VLCCs could see strong counter-cyclical demand as summer approaches. Taiwan’s CPC Corp reportedly paid $79,503 per day for the VLCC Hansika, the week’s top fixture. ExxonMobil also secured the Yasa Scorpion at $60,946 per day, signaling strong charterer demand for Middle East liftings.

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EU to Unveil May 6 Roadmap to End Russian Fossil Fuel Imports by 2027

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced the EU will present a roadmap in the coming two weeks outlining how it plans to phase out all imports of Russian fossil fuels. The move is part of the EU’s broader strategy to eliminate dependency on Russian energy by 2027 in response to Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine. Since then, Russian gas imports have dropped from 45% in 2021 to 18%. The supply gap has been largely filled by increased liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from the U.S. and more gas from Norway. Von der Leyen emphasized that such energy partnerships, especially with the U.S., are strategically important for Europe. U.S. President Trump has encouraged more EU purchases of American gas, which could also influence trade negotiations on tariffs. The Commission is considering legal tools that could ban new Russian gas contracts and provide ways for companies to exit existing agreements without penalties. Although von der Leyen did not give a specific date, internal documents suggest the roadmap will be released on May 6.

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More Russian Insurers Seek Indian Approval Amid Sanctions Pressure on Oil Trade

Three additional Russian insurers, including a Sberbank subsidiary, have requested approval from India to offer marine insurance for oil tankers, aiming to secure continued crude exports despite Western sanctions. India has already approved five Russian insurers, as none are members of the International Group of P&I Clubs, which typically covers major global shipping liabilities. The request comes as Western scrutiny intensifies on Russia’s oil exports, especially concerning compliance with the G7 price cap and use of Western-linked shipping services. Russia remains India's top oil supplier for the third consecutive year due to discounted pricing post-sanctions. India's shipping ministry is evaluating the applications from Sberbank Insurance, Ugoria Insurance Group, and ASTK Insurance Company, with final clearance pending. Insurance is crucial for oil shipping, especially given safety and liability risks. Although some Russian insurers are sanctioned by the U.S. and UK, India adheres only to UN sanctions and may approve these new applications. Indian refiners typically buy Russian oil on a delivered basis, with sellers providing both the vessel and insurance, although recent incidents highlight the risk of non-compliance with local port regulations.

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Advantage Tankers signs LOI for LNG-ready VLCC duo at Hanwha Ocean

Advantage Tankers has signed a letter of intent with Hanwha Ocean for two LNG-ready 320,000-dwt VLCCs, set for delivery from mid-2027. CEO Tugrul Tokgoz confirmed the rare newbuilding order, with brokers valuing each vessel at $126.5 million. Final contracts are expected to be signed within a week. VLCC orders remain limited in 2025, with only a few other contracts reported, including Capital Ship Management’s order at the same yard. Advantage currently owns 31 tankers, including six VLCCs—five built by Hanwha when it was DSME, and one from China. The company also holds orders for suezmaxes and LR1s in Japan and South Korea. Two under-construction LR1s—Advantage Passion and Advantage Path—have already secured five-year charters with Swiss trader Mercuria at $28,500 per day. Advantage has been expanding its LR1 presence since 2023 through both newbuilds and secondhand acquisitions.

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CMB.Tech CEO champions diversification and decarbonisation after Golden Ocean megamerger

CMB.Tech CEO Alexander Saverys emphasized the company’s shift away from pure-play shipping toward diversification following its merger with Golden Ocean. The deal will make CMB.Tech the second-largest capesize owner globally, with a fleet of 250 ships spanning tankers, bulkers, boxships, and offshore vessels. Saverys highlighted diversification as key to navigating volatile shipping markets, allowing flexibility across cycles and sectors. He cited low orderbooks and aging fleets in tankers and dry bulk as reasons for current investment, while avoiding LNG, LPG, and containers for now. Decarbonisation is the second pillar of CMB.Tech’s strategy, with a focus on young, fuel-efficient ships and retrofitting vessels for future hydrogen or ammonia use. Golden Ocean’s fleet has an average age of six years, the youngest among top 20 capesize owners. The new company will operate 87 capesizes, second only to China’s Cosco with 96. CMB.Tech is also investing in nine ammonia-powered vessels for delivery in 2026, ensuring future fuel flexibility.

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Norden completes world’s first voyage on carbon-negative biofuel

Norden has conducted what is believed to be the world’s first ship voyage using a carbon-negative biofuel. The 178,700-dwt capesize Nord Power (now GH Callas) completed a round trip from Singapore to Brazil using a 20% biofuel blend in its auxiliary engine, supplied by Indian firm MASH Makes. The biofuel is produced via pyrolysis of agricultural residues like cashew nut shells and meets international marine fuel standards. Independent analysts from Boundless Impact confirmed the fuel's carbon-negative status, thanks to its co-product biochar, which locks carbon in the soil. Each tonne of biofuel leads to 5.7 tonnes of CO₂ being sequestered, making it an immediate emissions-cutting option for shipping. Norden’s head of decarbonisation Henrik Rojel called it a milestone for integrating low-carbon fuels without new infrastructure. MASH Makes originated as a Danish university project and is now backed by Norden, which invested in the company in 2023. The biofuel initiative is part of a larger effort with the Maersk Mc-Kinney Moller Center to develop scalable solutions for maritime decarbonisation.