Oil Prices Drop Over 2% on US-Iran Talks Progress and Demand Concerns

Oil prices dropped more than 2% on Monday, pressured by positive signals from U.S.-Iran nuclear talks and growing fears over weakening fuel demand. Brent crude fell by $1.70 to $66.26 per barrel, and WTI dropped $1.60 to $63.08 per barrel, reversing recent gains. The potential for a nuclear deal could bring Iranian oil back into global markets, easing supply concerns, said analysts at Onyx Capital Group. Market volatility was further influenced by low liquidity due to the Easter holiday. Economic concerns also mounted after President Trump repeated calls for lower interest rates and warned of a potential U.S. slowdown. Ongoing trade tariffs are seen as a key threat, with a Reuters poll showing a 50% chance of a U.S. recession within a year. Meanwhile, OPEC+ is still planning to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day in May, although overproduction adjustments could limit the net increase. Investors are also closely watching upcoming U.S. economic data for further clues on energy demand trends.

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U.S. Tariffs Could Cost China-Owned Supertankers $5.2 Million per Port Call

The U.S. has proposed new tariffs targeting China-built and China-owned oil supertankers, potentially costing up to $5.2 million per port call for Chinese-operated vessels. Non-Chinese operators using China-built tankers could face around $1.9 million in fees under the same rules, according to Arrow Shipbroking Group. The updated tariff structure calculates charges based on a ship’s net registered tonnage (nrt), rather than a flat per-visit fee. Rates will range from $18 per nrt for non-Chinese operators to $50 per nrt for Chinese owners or operators, significantly affecting large vessels like VLCCs. These new fees are set to take effect in mid-October. Product tankers of varying sizes may incur fees between $575,000 and $1.2 million under the new policy. While some exemptions are in place, analysts say the rule could still hit Chinese shipowners hard. Despite this, most tankers in use today are South Korean-built, with China’s fleet being about half that size, according to Clarksons Research.

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Sinokor–Trafigura VLCC Venture Likely Named ‘Lucky Maritime’

A possible new VLCC joint venture between South Korea’s Sinokor Maritime and commodity trader Trafigura may be named Lucky Maritime, based on a recent client email from Sinokor. The message provides a Lucky Maritime email address for handling new crude oil cargo opportunities tied to Sinokor's fleet, effective from April 22. Industry sources say this signals that the joint venture is operational and may involve a broader cooperation on crude tankers. Earlier this year, TradeWinds observed Sinokor-controlled VLCCs on Trafigura’s position list, fueling speculation of a tie-up. Brokers believe these vessels were taken on short-term, index-linked charters by Trafigura. Talks of merging their commercial VLCC operations have circulated, potentially giving them access to over 100 vessels and a 12% market share. Both companies have avoided public confirmation, with Trafigura previously dismissing such reports as speculation. However, repeated connections in charter activity and new contact details now strongly suggest a formal partnership is underway.

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Russia Cuts Oil Export Forecast and Lowers Price Outlook Amid Revenue Pressure

Russia has reduced its export forecast for 2025 and lowered expectations for the price of its key Urals crude oil, signaling tighter revenue conditions. The Economy Ministry now expects exports to fall 5.3% to 410.6 billion rubles, down from a previously estimated 445 billion rubles. It also slashed its Urals oil price forecast to $56 per barrel from $69.70, citing global market volatility. The lower oil income may require the Kremlin to draw from its National Wealth Fund to support ongoing wartime spending. However, rising revenues from non-energy sectors and the fund’s reserves should allow the government to absorb the shortfall for up to two years, even if oil falls to $50. Current pricing data shows Urals crude recently dipped to $52.76 per barrel. Brent crude is now forecast at $68, also down from earlier projections, after recent market declines triggered by the US-China trade war and rising OPEC+ output. Despite financial pressures, the ministry maintains a 2025 growth forecast of 2.5%, but increased its year-end inflation outlook to 7.6% due to persistent price growth.

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Chevron Begins Production at $1.6B Ballymore Oil Project in Gulf of Mexico

Chevron has commenced oil and gas production at its Ballymore project in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, marking a significant step toward its target of increasing Gulf output by 50% this year. Located 160 miles southeast of New Orleans, Ballymore comprises three wells with a combined capacity of up to 75,000 barrels per day. The $1.6 billion project utilizes an existing platform to save costs and accelerate production. Chevron aims to grow its Gulf production to 300,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2026 while reducing business costs by $3 billion. The project is the company’s first in the Norphlet formation, a relatively unexplored geological region in the Gulf. Technological advancements, such as ocean bottom nodes, are enhancing Chevron’s subsurface data collection capabilities. Chevron operates Ballymore with a 60% stake, while TotalEnergies holds the remaining 40%, and the site holds an estimated 150 million barrels in recoverable resources. The company also plans to participate in upcoming U.S. lease sales, building on momentum from its recent Anchor project launch.

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US Port Fee Plan Eases Pressure on Tankers, Bulk Carriers, and Gas Ships

US port fee changes primarily target Chinese-owned and Chinese-built vessels, but tankers, bulk carriers, and gas carriers are likely to avoid major impacts, according to Fearnley Securities. The exemptions include ballast vessels and differentiate between Chinese and non-Chinese shipowners. Analysts say the most affected segments will be container ships and car carriers, especially with a flat $150-per-CEU fee on non-US vehicle ships. Chinese container operators like Cosco and OOIL will face higher costs, which could push up freight rates as global fleets adjust. For LNG carriers, US policy mandates that a small share of exports be on US-built ships—starting at 1% in 2029 and rising to 15% by 2047. Fearnley expects minimal short- to mid-term disruption due to high costs and limited capacity at US shipyards. Overall, the analysts see the fee plan as a moderate outcome and a relief for most shipping segments. Chinese operators, however, may face fees four times higher than others by 2028 unless they order equivalent US-built ships.

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Clarksons and Vitol: Biofuels to Play Key Role in Shipping’s Decarbonisation Strategy

Clarksons urges shipowners to secure chemical tankers for biofuel transport, as demand soars and freight capacity tightens. The biofuels market has grown nearly 400% since 2007, but shipping these fuels remains complex due to limited dedicated fleet and competition with traditional chemical cargoes. Clarksons’ Josh Saxby noted rising geopolitical tensions, regulations, and rerouting around the Red Sea are straining tanker availability. European restrictions, US tariffs, and anti-dumping measures are also forcing producers to rethink logistics strategies. Vitol agrees on biofuel’s growing role and highlights its immediate importance for existing fleets under FuelEU Maritime rules. Using biofuels now allows compliance overachievement to be banked for future mandates, with demand expected to rise further by 2030. However, maritime must compete with road and aviation sectors for limited supply, and clear IMO guidance on feedstocks is still pending. Both Clarksons and Vitol see biofuels as a critical bridge to future fuels like LNG, bio-LNG, and e-fuels in the shipping industry’s decarbonisation journey.