Oil Prices Rise on U.S. Fuel Demand, But Fed Rate Decision Limits Gains

Oil prices inched higher as U.S. government data revealed a sharp drop in fuel inventories, signaling strong demand. Brent crude settled at $70.78 per barrel, up 0.31%, while U.S. WTI rose 0.39% to $67.16. Despite an unexpected increase of 1.7 million barrels in U.S. crude stocks, distillate inventories, including diesel and heating oil, dropped significantly by 2.8 million barrels, far exceeding the anticipated 300,000-barrel decline. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions intensified as Israel resumed military operations in Gaza, and President Trump vowed continued action against Yemen’s Houthis while holding Iran accountable for Red Sea disruptions. Analysts warn that Middle East conflicts are adding to oil market volatility. The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%-4.50%, hinting at a potential rate cut later this year amid economic slowdown concerns. Fears of a U.S. recession, exacerbated by tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, dampened oil price gains. Investors also monitored ceasefire talks between Russia and Ukraine, where Moscow agreed to Trump’s proposal to halt energy-targeted attacks, potentially paving the way for Russian oil to re-enter global markets. However, fresh accusations of violations raised doubts about a lasting truce. While Russian energy exports remain constrained due to sanctions, analysts predict that any recovery in output will be gradual, dependent on securing better pricing in global markets.

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Trump Meets Oil Executives to Push Energy Dominance Amid Price Slump and Trade Wars

U.S. President Donald Trump hosted top oil executives at the White House to discuss strategies for bolstering domestic energy production amid falling crude prices and ongoing trade disputes. This marked his first meeting with energy leaders since returning to office in January. Key topics included advancing U.S. energy dominance, streamlining permit processes, and strengthening the national power grid to compete with China in artificial intelligence. Despite expectations that executives would push for higher oil prices, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum stated price discussions were absent, as prices are dictated by market supply and demand. Energy Secretary Chris Wright noted ongoing tariff discussions, emphasizing Trump’s broader economic agenda of reducing domestic costs while increasing job opportunities. Attendees included leaders from ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum, and Continental Resources, with API President Mike Sommers expressing industry appreciation for the meeting. Analysts predict Brent crude will average $73 per barrel in 2025, down from 2024’s estimate due to U.S. tariff policies and OPEC+ production plans. Brent crude settled at $70.78 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate closed at $67.16. Trump’s trade war with Mexico and Canada has drawn opposition from the American Petroleum Institute (API), given the two nations’ status as top crude suppliers. API previously criticized tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, highlighting the importance of integrated energy markets for affordable and reliable U.S. energy. In response, API proposed a five-point energy plan urging Congress to reform permits, expand offshore leasing, protect carbon capture tax credits, and roll back electric vehicle subsidies.

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Alaska’s Crude Oil Production Set to Rise in 2026 for the First Time Since 2017, Says EIA

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects Alaska’s crude oil production will rise in 2026 for the first time since 2017, reaching 438,000 barrels per day (bpd)—the largest increase since 2002. The growth, driven by ConocoPhillips’ Nuna project and the jointly owned Pikka project by Santos and Repsol, follows decades of production declines. The Nuna project’s 29 wells are expected to peak at 20,000 bpd, while Pikka aims for 80,000 bpd from 45 wells. As of December 2024, 22% of the wells for both projects were drilled, with plans for an additional 58 wells by 2028 to sustain high drilling activity. The EIA also forecasts Alaska’s crude output to average 422,000 bpd in 2025—an increase of 1,000 bpd, contrasting with the previous five-year trend of a 9,000 bpd annual decline.

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Japan's Crude Oil Imports Drop 13.1% in February, LNG Imports Decline 2.5%

Japan's customs-cleared crude oil imports fell 13.1% year-on-year in February to 2.27 million barrels per day (10.097 million kilolitres), according to preliminary data from the Ministry of Finance. The world's fourth-largest crude buyer also saw LNG imports decline by 2.5% to 5.875 million tonnes. Conversely, thermal coal imports for power generation surged by 13.1% to 8.833 million tonnes. The total value of mineral fuel imports dropped 11.1% to 1.97 trillion yen, with crude oil imports valued at 789.5 billion yen, down 12.9% from a year earlier. The decline in crude imports reflects Japan’s shifting energy landscape, including its increased reliance on coal and gradual adoption of renewable energy sources.

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Sinochem Sells Bankrupt Shandong Refinery to Hongrun Petrochemical for $412 Million

State-run Sinochem Group has sold its bankrupt Changyi Petrochemical refinery in Shandong province to independent refiner Hongrun Petrochemical for approximately 2.98 billion yuan ($411.82 million). The refinery, with a capacity of 160,000 barrels per day, has been inactive since last year. The sale price is less than half of Sinochem’s initial 6.4 billion yuan target in October 2024. Hongrun, based in Weifang city, is expected to acquire Changyi’s crude oil import quota, which was part of China’s 2025 allocation. The refinery’s unpaid taxes may be written off. The acquisition will expand Hongrun’s crude processing capacity to nearly 20 million tons per year (400,000 bpd). China’s independent refining sector is undergoing consolidation due to weak demand, overcapacity, and stricter regulations. Sinochem is reportedly in talks to sell its two other bankrupt Shandong refineries, Huaxing Petrochemical and Zhenghe Petrochemical.

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Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery Suspends Fuel Sales in Naira, Raising Currency and Price Concerns

Nigeria’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery announced it would temporarily halt fuel sales in the local naira currency, citing a mismatch between crude oil purchases made in U.S. dollars and fuel sales in naira. The refinery, with a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, stated that its naira-denominated sales had surpassed the value of crude it received in local currency, prompting the shift to dollar-based transactions. This move could lead to higher fuel prices and further depreciation of the naira as traders seek foreign exchange. While the Nigerian government had previously allowed state oil firm NNPC Ltd to sell crude to local refineries in naira for six months starting in October 2024, Dangote has struggled to secure agreed crude volumes, and other refineries report receiving none at all. NNPC is in talks to renew the deal, though its future remains uncertain. In an effort to curb fuel imports, Dangote has slashed petrol prices by over 20% since December and is pursuing legal action to block gasoline imports into Nigeria. The refinery, built by Africa’s richest man, Aliko Dangote, is seen as a potential solution to Nigeria’s reliance on imported refined fuel despite being a major crude oil producer. However, its latest decision underscores the ongoing challenges in achieving energy self-sufficiency.

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Vitol Expands West African Presence with $1.65bn Investment in Eni Assets

Vitol has made a $1.65 billion investment in oil and gas assets across Ivory Coast and the Republic of Congo, marking a significant step in its West African business expansion. The commodities trader is acquiring stakes in producing fields and exploration projects, including the Baleine project in Ivory Coast and the Congo LNG project. In Ivory Coast, Vitol is purchasing a 30% stake in the Baleine field, which is Eni’s first development in the country. The project began production in 2023, reaching 60,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, with plans to expand to 150,000 barrels per day. The gas produced will remain within the country. In the Republic of Congo, Vitol is taking a 25% stake in the Congo LNG project, which began exports in February 2024, with a second phase expected to boost exports by 2025. This investment deepens the collaboration between Vitol and Eni, with the two companies already partners in Ghana's OCTP and Block 4 projects.

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TotalEnergies Explores Brazilian Green Hydrogen for European Refineries

TotalEnergies SE is considering importing green hydrogen from a large-scale project in northeastern Brazil, led by renewable energy developer Casa dos Ventos, to supply its European refineries. The project, planned at the port of Pecém, could eventually reach a capacity of 1.2 GW of electrolysis, producing 160,000 tons of green hydrogen and 900,000 tons of green ammonia annually. TotalEnergies, which holds a 34% stake in Casa dos Ventos’ renewables unit, may also take a direct share in the project. The initiative aligns with the French energy giant’s goal to replace 500,000 tons of gray hydrogen with green alternatives by 2030, in response to stricter EU emissions regulations. Brazil’s favorable conditions for green hydrogen production, supported by recent tax incentives, have positioned the country as a potential global export hub. A final investment decision for the project is expected in 2026, with operations slated to begin in 2029.

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Tsakos Energy Navigation Sells Tanker Pentathlon Amid Fleet Renewal

Tsakos Energy Navigation (TEN) is divesting one of its oldest vessels, the 158,500-dwt Pentathlon, built in 2009, as part of its ongoing fleet renewal strategy. The vessel, built by Samsung Heavy Industries, was reportedly sold for around $40.5 million. TEN has been actively selling older tankers, having divested 12 vessels since the start of 2023, raising approximately $320 million. The Pentathlon’s sale is part of TEN's approach to maintain a modern fleet, combining secondhand sales with newbuilding orders. The company currently operates 60 tankers and has 21 under construction. While TEN has not confirmed the buyer, some sources suggest Grace Energy Shipping, a UAE-based company, might have acquired the vessel.

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Ren Yuanlin's Investment Firm Expands into Shipowning with $800M Tanker Newbuilding Orders

Ren Yuanlin, the Chinese shipbuilding veteran, is shifting his investment firm, Yangzijiang Financial Holding, from real estate to shipowning, with a major $800 million spree of tanker newbuildings. The company has raised its tanker newbuilding tally to 22 vessels, with a significant portion of these orders placed in collaboration with foreign shipping companies. The firm has focused on building a fleet of product carriers, chemical tankers, and other specialized vessels, with deliveries scheduled from 2026 to 2028. The firm has placed orders for both fully owned vessels and joint ventures, including partnerships with UK, Singapore, and Hong Kong-based shipping firms. Yangzijiang Financial is also eyeing a move into bulkers with a new partnership. This strategic expansion into maritime investments aligns with Ren’s experience in shipbuilding, aiming to reduce exposure to the troubled real estate sector while capitalizing on the growth of the shipping industry.

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Trump’s China-Linked Ship Fees Disrupt U.S. Coal and Agriculture Exports

President Donald Trump’s proposal to impose port fees of up to $1.5 million on China-built ships or fleets containing such vessels is causing significant disruptions in U.S. exports, particularly in coal and agriculture. The proposed fees have already led vessel owners to refuse future coal shipment contracts, with Xcoal Energy & Resources CEO Ernie Thrasher warning that coal exports could halt within 60 days, jeopardizing $130 billion in shipments and adding up to 35% in costs. West Virginia coal mines are bracing for layoffs as inventories pile up. The American Petroleum Institute has also raised concerns that the fees could hinder the export of oil, LNG, and refined fuels, as the U.S. lacks domestically built and flagged LNG carriers. The USTR’s proposal aims to shift exports onto U.S.-built, U.S.-flagged ships, but the fleet numbers fewer than 200 vessels, making compliance nearly impossible. U.S. farmers, already struggling with retaliatory tariffs from China, Mexico, and Canada, face further difficulties as uncertainty over ocean freight costs disrupts sales of key crops like corn, soybeans, and wheat. In 2024, the U.S. exported over $64 billion in bulk crops and related goods, but new shipping costs could add $372 million to $930 million annually, significantly eroding profit margins. The American Soybean Association warns that additional costs threaten the efficiency of the U.S. supply chain, eliminating a key competitive advantage in global markets.