Oil Prices Steady Amid Tariff Uncertainty and OPEC+ Output Hike

Oil prices remained largely unchanged on Thursday, with Brent crude closing below $70 per barrel amid market volatility driven by tariff tensions and OPEC+’s decision to increase production. Brent settled at $69.46 per barrel (+0.2%), while WTI crude finished at $66.36 per barrel (+0.1%). On Wednesday, Brent hit $68.33, its lowest since December 2021, following a larger-than-expected build in U.S. crude inventories and OPEC+’s first output hike since 2022. Market sentiment was further impacted by geopolitical developments, including Russia’s insistence on securing gains in Ukraine while seeking a peace deal. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump temporarily exempted Canada and Mexico from 25% tariffs, though uncertainty remains over broader trade policies. Chinese officials indicated that additional economic stimulus could be introduced to counteract trade war effects, while the U.S. continues its campaign of maximum sanctions on Iran to collapse its oil exports and pressure its economy. Analysts warn that demand risks outweigh supply risks, with economic sanctions likely to weaken global consumption. Some OPEC+ officials believe the price drop is overdone and expect a gradual market recovery.

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U.S. Weighs At-Sea Inspections to Disrupt Iran’s Oil Trade

The Trump administration is considering stopping and inspecting Iranian oil tankers under an international accord to curb weapons of mass destruction. Aimed at driving Iran’s oil exports to zero, the plan would delay crude deliveries through key chokepoints like the Malacca Strait, discouraging illicit trade. The U.S. may use the Proliferation Security Initiative, signed by over 100 countries, to enlist foreign cooperation. Past U.S. efforts to seize Iranian oil triggered retaliatory ship seizures by Iran, briefly spiking oil prices. Analysts suggest that with oil prices below $75 per barrel, the U.S. has more flexibility to enforce stricter sanctions. A short-term reduction of up to 750,000 barrels per day in Iranian exports is possible, though Tehran has historically bypassed restrictions. The U.S. is also pressuring Iraq to restart Kurdish oil exports to offset potential Iranian losses. Despite sanctions, Iran earned $53 billion from oil exports in 2023, mainly through trade with China. Russia, facing similar restrictions, is also prioritizing oil sales to China and India. While European nations have raised concerns about uninsured oil shipments, no specific actions have been proposed against Iranian vessels.

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Russia Ships Diesel to Syria on Sanctioned Tanker for First Time in a Decade

Russia has sent a diesel shipment to Syria using a U.S.-sanctioned tanker, marking the first such direct delivery in over a decade, according to LSEG data. The Barbados-flagged vessel Prosperity, previously NS Pride, carried about 37,000 metric tons of ultra-low sulfur diesel from Russia’s Primorsk port on February 8 and is now anchored near Syria’s Banias port. Managed by the Dubai-based Fornax Ship Management, also under U.S. sanctions, the tanker was added to the U.S. sanctions list on January 10, with the EU and UK following on February 24. The shipment comes as Russia seeks to maintain control over its military bases in Syria amid geopolitical instability following Bashar al-Assad’s fall last year. While U.S. sanctions aim to curb Russia’s oil revenues, Washington recently issued a six-month waiver on Syria-related energy sanctions. Syria, struggling with fuel shortages, has issued an import tender for 20,000 tons of LPG and seeks oil imports as Iranian crude shipments have stopped since November. Syria’s oil refineries in Homs and Banias remain non-operational after Assad’s downfall.

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Iraqi Kurdistan Oil Export Talks Fail Again Despite U.S. Pressure

Negotiations to resume Iraqi Kurdistan’s halted oil exports to Turkey ended without a deal for the second time in a week, despite U.S. involvement. The two-year suspension has blocked 185,000 barrels per day from reaching Turkey’s Ceyhan port, and Washington is pressuring Iraq to restart flows or face sanctions. Pricing disagreements remain a major obstacle, with Baghdad proposing a $16-per-barrel production cost but refusing to apply it to all Kurdistan output, sparking opposition from foreign oil firms like DNO, Genel Energy, and Gulf Keystone Petroleum. The Association of the Petroleum Industry of Kurdistan (APIKUR) insists on guarantees for payment security and adherence to existing production-sharing contracts. A U.S. embassy official attended Thursday’s talks to push for progress, reflecting the administration’s dual goals of lowering global oil prices and curbing Iraq’s financial ties with Iran. Washington’s stance aligns with its "maximum pressure" campaign against Tehran’s oil exports, but Iraq remains cautious, balancing relations between the U.S. and Iran.

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U.S. Crude Exports to India Surge to Two-Year High as Russia Sanctions Disrupt Trade

U.S. crude oil exports to India soared to 357,000 barrels per day (bpd) in February, the highest level in over two years, as tighter U.S. sanctions on Russian oil forced Indian refiners to seek alternative sources. This marked a significant increase from 221,000 bpd last year, with India aiming to boost its energy purchases from the U.S. to $25 billion in the near future. Around 80% of the exports consisted of light-sweet West Texas Intermediate-Midland crude, with major Indian buyers including Indian Oil Corp, Reliance Industries, and Bharat Petroleum. Key U.S. sellers included Occidental Petroleum, Equinor, Exxon Mobil, and Gunvor. Sanctions on Russian vessels further accelerated India's shift away from Russian crude. Meanwhile, U.S. crude exports to South Korea hit a record 656,000 bpd due to China imposing a 10% tariff on U.S. oil, which also led to a sharp decline in U.S. exports to China, reaching just 76,000 bpd—the lowest in five years.

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KNOT Offshore Tanker First to Lift Crude from New Norwegian Johan Castberg Field

The KNOT Offshore Partners' tanker, Bodil Knutsen, became the first vessel to lift crude oil from the new Johan Castberg field off the northwest coast of Norway. The field, operated by Equinor, is expected to produce 220,000 barrels per day once fully operational, contributing to an already strained crude market. The field’s medium-sweet crude, rich in middle distillates and with lower sulfur than Russia's ESPO grade, is anticipated to fill a gap in European refining. Despite initial delays due to bad weather, production is expected to continue from the field's three discoveries—Skrugard, Havis, and Drivis—over the next 30 years. Equinor holds a 50% stake in the project, with Vaar Energi and Petoro holding the remaining shares.

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Torm Continues Tanker Fleet Modernization with Sale of Three Oldest MRs

Danish shipping company Torm has continued its fleet modernization by selling three of its oldest MR tankers. The vessels, built in 2005, include the 46,200-dwt Torm Ragnhild, 51,200-dwt Torm Resilience, and 47,000-dwt Torm Thames. The deals were made with unnamed buyers, with the ships valued at $15 million to $16 million each. The sales are part of Torm’s strategy to grow and modernize its fleet, having already taken delivery of 19 new tankers and sold seven older ones since early 2024. Torm now owns and leases 94 LR2, LR1, and MR tankers. The company’s CEO, Jacob Meldgaard, has emphasized that Torm's goal is to maintain a competitive fleet size.